\n
Pasak buvusi\u0173 JAV pareig\u016bn\u0173, u\u017esienio diplomat\u0173 ir regiono analitik\u0173, nors ir susilpn\u0117j\u0119s ir susid\u016br\u0119s su vidaus krize, Irano re\u017eimas vis dar turi didel\u0119 ugnies j\u0117g\u0105, galin\u010di\u0105 pakenkti Amerikos interesams ir s\u0105jungininkams regione, sutrikdyti pasaulio ekonomik\u0105 ir sukelti u\u017esit\u0119sus\u012f konflikt\u0105, atsakant\u012f \u012f JAV karin\u0119 atak\u0105.<\/p>\n
Pasak dabartini\u0173 JAV pareig\u016bn\u0173, Irano atsakom\u0173j\u0173 veiksm\u0173 perspektyva atsi\u017evelg\u0117 \u012f prezidento Donaldo Trumpo svarstymus, ar duoti nurodym\u0105 karinei atakai Irane po bir\u017eel\u012f \u012fvykdyt\u0173 sm\u016bgi\u0173 prie\u0161 jo branduolin\u0119 program\u0105, taip pat \u012f diskusijas tarp JAV ir jos s\u0105junginink\u0173 Artimuosiuose Rytuose.<\/p>\n
Nors Iranas bir\u017eel\u012f ker\u0161ijo Izraeliui ir JAV bazei Katare, jis nesi\u0117m\u0117 dramati\u0161kesni\u0173 veiksm\u0173, kurie gal\u0117jo sukelti Amerikos paj\u0117g\u0173 auk\u0173 arba destabilizuoti Persijos \u012flankos ekonomik\u0105. Irano atsakas \u012f JAV karinius veiksmus \u0161\u012f kart\u0105 gali pasirodyti visai kitaip, jei Trumpas priimt\u0173 tok\u012f sprendim\u0105, sak\u0117 buv\u0119 pareig\u016bnai, diplomatai ir analitikai, ypa\u010d jei Irano lyderiai suvoks gr\u0117sm\u0119 j\u0173 i\u0161likimui.<\/p>\n
\u201e\u0160\u012f kart\u0105 gali b\u016bti kitaip, nes jie bando tai suskirstyti \u012f regionus, o ne tiesiog eiti paskui Izrael\u012f ar JAV bazes\u201c, \u2013 sak\u0117 \u012f pensij\u0105 i\u0161\u0117j\u0119s keturi\u0173 \u017evaig\u017edu\u010di\u0173 armijos generolas Josephas Votelis, pri\u017ei\u016br\u0117j\u0119s JAV paj\u0117gas Artimuosiuose Rytuose pirm\u0105j\u0105 Trumpo kadencij\u0105.<\/p>\n
Votelis, dabar Artim\u0173j\u0173 Ryt\u0173 instituto, ekspert\u0173 grup\u0117s, vyresnysis bendradarbis, sak\u0117, kad viena galimyb\u0117 yra ta, kad Iranas bandys nusitaikyti \u012f naftos perdirbimo gamyklas Persijos \u012flankos \u0161alyse, siekdamas \u201e\u012ftraukti visus \u012f tai ir paversti tai daug u\u017esit\u0119susiu konfliktu\u201c.<\/p>\n
Tikimasi, kad JAV ir Iranas ketvirtadien\u012f surengs dar vien\u0105 diplomatini\u0173 deryb\u0173 raund\u0105, teigia administracijos pareig\u016bnai. Administracijos pareig\u016bnai nurod\u0117, kad Iranas turi padaryti dideli\u0173 nuolaid\u0173 d\u0117l savo branduolin\u0117s programos, \u012fskaitant urano sodrinimo atsisakym\u0105, kad b\u016bt\u0173 i\u0161vengta galim\u0173 JAV karini\u0173 veiksm\u0173.<\/p>\n
Trumpo pasiuntinys Artimuosiuose Rytuose Steve’as Witkoffas, vadovaujantis Irano deryboms kartu su Trumpo \u017eentu Jaredu Kushneriu, savaitgal\u012f sak\u0117, kad \u201ebuvo raudonos linijos: nulis sodrinimo, mes turime susigr\u0105\u017einti med\u017eiag\u0105\u201c.<\/p>\n
\u201eFox News\u201c interviu paklaustas, kod\u0117l Iranas nesudaro susitarimo su JAV, darydamas tok\u012f stipr\u0173 karin\u012f ir ekonomin\u012f spaudim\u0105, Witkoffas sak\u0117, kad D. Trumpas jam u\u017edav\u0117 t\u0105 pat\u012f klausim\u0105. \u201eJam \u012fdomu, kod\u0117l jie nepasidav\u0117, a\u0161 nenoriu vartoti \u017eod\u017eio \u201epasidav\u0117\u201c, bet kod\u0117l jie nepasidav\u0117\u201c, \u2013 sak\u0117 Witkoffas.<\/p>\n
Trumpas svarsto daugyb\u0119 karini\u0173 galimybi\u0173, jei diplomatin\u0117s pastangos \u017elugs \u2013 nuo \u200b\u200bribot\u0173 sm\u016bgi\u0173, nukreipt\u0173 \u012f branduolines ir raket\u0173 vietas, iki platesnio puolimo, skirto re\u017eimui susilpninti ar net nuversti, prane\u0161\u0117 NBC News.<\/p>\n
Ta\u010diau, pasak buvusi\u0173 JAV pareig\u016bn\u0173, u\u017esienio diplomat\u0173 ir regiono analitik\u0173, tai, k\u0105 Trumpas laiko \u201eribotu\u201c, Iranas taip negali interpretuoti, ypa\u010d jei Irano lyderiai mano, kad re\u017eimo i\u0161likimui gresia pavojus.<\/p>\n
\u201eJei jie suvoks tai kaip egzistencin\u0119 gr\u0117sm\u0119… j\u0173 reakcija tikrai bus neproporcinga\u201c, \u2013 apie Irano lyderius sak\u0117 Artim\u0173j\u0173 Ryt\u0173 diplomatas.<\/p>\n
Iranas per pastaruosius metus patyr\u0117 alinan\u010di\u0173 nes\u0117kmi\u0173, kai \u017elugo B.al Assado re\u017eimas kaimynin\u0117je Sirijoje, nuniokojo \u201eHezbollah\u201c \u012fgaliotiniai Libane, o JAV ir Izraelis bir\u017eel\u012f bombardavo jo branduolines ir raket\u0173 programas.<\/p>\n
Ta\u010diau Teheranas vis dar turi daug balistini\u0173 raket\u0173, sparnuot\u0173j\u0173 raket\u0173 ir bepilo\u010di\u0173 orlaivi\u0173, tod\u0117l jis gali bandyti atsikirsti sm\u016bgiais per Persijos \u012flank\u0105, siekdamas pas\u0117ti ekonomin\u012f nestabilum\u0105 ir sukelti nerim\u0105 tarp JAV s\u0105junginink\u0173, toki\u0173 kaip Saudo Arabija, Kataras ir Jungtiniai Arab\u0173 Emyratai.<\/p>\n
Iranas gal\u0117t\u0173 pakoreguoti savo atsak\u0105 atsi\u017evelgdamas \u012f JAV atakos mast\u0105 ir paspartinti savo veiksmus, jei lyderiai suvokt\u0173 JAV bandym\u0105 nuversti re\u017eim\u0105, sak\u0117 Josephas Costa i\u0161 Atlanto tarybos, Va\u0161ingtone \u012fsik\u016brusios ekspert\u0173 grup\u0117s. <\/p>\n
\u201eIranas gali apskai\u010diuoti, kad jis turi padidinti karo i\u0161laidas\u201c, \u2013 sak\u0117 Costa, pad\u0117j\u0119s pri\u017ei\u016br\u0117ti karo planavim\u0105 b\u016bdamas auk\u0161tu Gynybos departamento pareig\u016bnu Bideno administracijos metu.<\/p>\n
Pra\u0117jus\u012f m\u0117nes\u012f kai kurie arab\u0173 valstybi\u0173 vadovai priva\u010diai i\u0161rei\u0161k\u0117 susir\u016bpinim\u0105 administracijos pareig\u016bnams d\u0117l tuo metu D. Trumpo sm\u016bgio Iranui, nes nebuvo \u012fsitikin\u0119, kad j\u0173 \u0161alys yra pasirengusios reaguoti \u012f bet kok\u012f Irano atsak\u0105, prane\u0161\u0117 NBC News. Ta\u010diau pastarosiomis dienomis, pasak trij\u0173 veteran\u0173 Artim\u0173j\u0173 Ryt\u0173 diplomat\u0173, \u0161ie lyderiai buvo patikinti, kad JAV u\u017etikrins, kad jie b\u016bt\u0173 apsaugoti nuo bet kokio Irano ker\u0161to.<\/p>\n
Trumpas pirmadien\u012f sukritikavo prane\u0161imus, kuriuose teigiama, kad Jungtinio \u0161tabo vad\u0173 tarybos pirmininkas Danas Caine’as i\u0161rei\u0161k\u0117 susir\u016bpinim\u0105 d\u0117l to, kad regione tr\u016bksta tinkamos oro gynybos amunicijos, kad b\u016bt\u0173 galima reaguoti \u012f atsakom\u0105j\u0105 Irano atak\u0105.<\/p>\n
\u201eGenerolas Caine’as, kaip ir mes visi, nenor\u0117t\u0173 matyti karo, bet jei bus priimtas sprendimas kovoti su Iranu kariniu lygmeniu, jo nuomone, tai bus ka\u017ekas lengvai laim\u0117to\u201c, \u2013 savo socialin\u0117je \u017einiasklaidoje \u201eTruth Social\u201c paskelb\u0117 Trumpas. \u201eA\u0161 esu tas, kuris priima sprendim\u0105, a\u0161 mieliau sudarysiu susitarim\u0105, nei nesudarysiu, bet jei mes nesudarysime susitarimo, tai bus labai bloga diena tai \u0161aliai ir, deja, jos \u017emon\u0117ms, nes jie yra puik\u016bs ir nuostab\u016bs, o ka\u017ekas pana\u0161aus jiems niekada netur\u0117jo nutikti.<\/p>\n
Pasak dviej\u0173 \u017emoni\u0173, susipa\u017einusi\u0173 su \u0161iuo klausimu, JAV sustiprino oro gynyb\u0105 regione, \u012fskaitant Katar\u0105 ir Saudo Arabij\u0105, kad pad\u0117t\u0173 su\u0161velninti bet kokios atsakomosios atakos i\u0161 Irano padarinius. Jie sak\u0117, kad didelis karini\u0173 j\u016br\u0173 paj\u0117g\u0173 kontingentas, dislokuotas visame regione, \u012fskaitant l\u0117ktuvne\u0161\u012f \u201eAbraham Lincoln\u201c ir \u201eFord\u201c l\u0117ktuvne\u0161\u012f, kuris tur\u0117t\u0173 atvykti artimiausiomis dienomis, prisid\u0117s prie ne tik puolimo, bet ir gynybini\u0173 paj\u0117g\u0173 k\u016brimo regione, jei JAV surengt\u0173 puolim\u0105, o Iranas reaguot\u0173. <\/p>\n
JAV taip pat turi daugyb\u0119 reaktyvini\u0173 naikintuv\u0173 ir kitos karin\u0117s \u012frangos eskadrili\u0173, dislokuot\u0173 visame regione. <\/p>\n
Galimi amerikie\u010di\u0173 sm\u016bgiai, kurie gal\u0117t\u0173 b\u016bti bendra operacija su Izraelio paj\u0117gomis, gali kelti rimt\u0105 pavoj\u0173 regione dislokuotiems daugiau nei 30 000 amerikie\u010di\u0173 kari\u0173, sak\u0117 buv\u0119 JAV pareig\u016bnai, u\u017esienio diplomatai ir regiono analitikai. Ir jie sak\u0117, kad t\u0173 kari\u0173 gynimas gali b\u016bti ilgalaik\u0117 problema regione savaites ar m\u0117nesius.<\/p>\n
Daugiau nei 35 000 darbuotoj\u0173 yra dislokuoti Artimuosiuose Rytuose ir aplink juos, didel\u0117se besidriekian\u010diose baz\u0117se Katare, Saudo Arabijoje, Jordanijoje, Kuveite ir kitose vietose. Daugel\u012f t\u0173 tarnybos nari\u0173 tuose \u012frenginiuose lydi j\u0173 \u0161eimos, \u012fskaitant karinio j\u016br\u0173 laivyno penkt\u0105j\u012f laivyn\u0105 Bahreine.<\/p>\n
Ta\u010diau kol kas did\u017eiulis karin\u0117s \u012frangos kaupimas regione gali gerokai su\u017elugdyti bet kok\u012f Irano atsak\u0105, sak\u0117 Va\u0161ingtone esan\u010dio Strategini\u0173 ir tarptautini\u0173 studij\u0173 centro vyresnysis patar\u0117jas Markas Cancianas. Pra\u0117jus\u012f m\u0117nes\u012f, kai per Iran\u0105 nusirito protestai prie\u0161 re\u017eim\u0105 ir Trumpas grasino \u012fsiki\u0161ti, JAV tur\u0117jo pakankamai karini\u0173 paj\u0117gum\u0173 regione, kad gal\u0117t\u0173 prad\u0117ti baud\u017eiam\u0105j\u012f sm\u016bg\u012f, bet nepakankamai, kad tinkamai apsaugot\u0173 s\u0105jungininkus ir partnerius, sak\u0117 jis. Dabar, pasak jo, atrodo, kad JAV turi toki\u0173 galimybi\u0173.<\/p>\n
Hosseinas Kanani, buv\u0119s Irano islamo revoliucijos gvardijos karininkas, NBC News sak\u0117, kad JAV atak\u0173 atveju Iranas nusitaikyt\u0173 \u012f JAV bazes regione, kur\u012f pri\u017ei\u016bri JAV centrin\u0117 vadovyb\u0117, \u012fskaitant Katare, Kuveite, Jungtiniuose Arab\u0173 Emyratuose ir Bahreine. Jis taip pat parei\u0161k\u0117, kad Teheranas gal\u0117t\u0173 ie\u0161koti Europos karini\u0173 objekt\u0173 kitur, jei \u0161ios \u0161alys dalyvaut\u0173 kampanijoje prie\u0161 Iran\u0105, nors n\u0117 viena Europos \u0161alis nenurod\u0117, kad gal\u0117t\u0173 prisijungti prie JAV bet kurioje karin\u0117je operacijoje Irane.<\/p>\n
\u201eKaip \u017einote, mes nem\u0117gstame konflikt\u0173 tarp arab\u0173 \u0161ali\u0173 ir Irano\u201c, \u2013 vaizdo skambu\u010diu i\u0161 Teherano sak\u0117 Kanani. \u201eMes tiesiog tiesiogiai atakuojame JAV ir Izraelio bazes ir Europos \u0161alis, galb\u016bt NATO\u201c.<\/p>\n
Irano JT misija Niujorke neatsak\u0117 \u012f pra\u0161ym\u0105 pakomentuoti.<\/p>\n
Iranas turi tris b\u016bdus, kaip smogti JAV ir, galb\u016bt, jos s\u0105jungininkams, sak\u0117 ekspertai. Jie sak\u0117, kad jos vadovyb\u0117 gali panaudoti raket\u0173 sm\u016bg\u012f; tarpini\u0173 i\u0161puoli\u0173, \u012fskaitant, pavyzd\u017eiui, \u201eHamas\u201c, \u201eHezbollah\u201c ar \u201eHuthis\u201c aktyvavim\u0105; ar teroristini\u0173 i\u0161puoli\u0173 visame pasaulyje. <\/p>\n
\u201eJAV paj\u0117gos teikia didel\u0119 apsaug\u0105 nuo raket\u0173 ir tarpini\u0173 atak\u0173, nors jokia gynyba n\u0117ra tobula\u201c, \u2013 sak\u0117 Cancianas ir prid\u016br\u0117, kad jei Iranas surengt\u0173 teroristin\u012f i\u0161puol\u012f kur nors u\u017e regiono rib\u0173, tai grei\u010diausiai prilygt\u0173 i\u0161puoliui prie\u0161 civilius, kuris sukelt\u0173 didel\u012f tarptautin\u012f pasipiktinim\u0105.<\/p>\n
Po bir\u017eelio m\u0117n. antskryd\u017ei\u0173 Irane Vokietijos ir Danijos vald\u017eios institucijos atskleid\u0117 su Iranu susijus\u012f s\u0105moksl\u0105, nukreipt\u0105 prie\u0161 \u017eyd\u0173 institucijas ir \u017eydus Vokietijoje. Izraelis paskelb\u0117 \u012fsp\u0117jim\u0105 d\u0117l galim\u0173 Irano i\u0161puoli\u0173 Jungtiniuose Arab\u0173 Emyratuose, o JAV pareig\u016bnai paskelb\u0117 \u012fsp\u0117jim\u0105 d\u0117l terorizmo d\u0117l galim\u0173 Irano s\u0105moksl\u0173 JAV teritorijoje.<\/p>\n
„Visame tame yra rizika. Niekas n\u0117ra saugus nuo gedim\u0173”, – sak\u0117 \u012f pensij\u0105 i\u0161\u0117j\u0119s generolas Votelis.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Nuoroda \u012f informacijos \u0161altin\u012f <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Pasak buvusi\u0173 JAV pareig\u016bn\u0173, u\u017esienio diplomat\u0173 ir regiono analitik\u0173, nors ir susilpn\u0117j\u0119s ir susid\u016br\u0119s su vidaus krize, Irano re\u017eimas vis…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1525,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1524","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pasaulio-naujienos"],"yoast_head":"\n
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